CGI (Michael Schaepman, Sander Mücher) will host the first ECOCHANGE Workshop to take place in Wageningen.

Location: Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR) / Alterra, Building GAIA (101) Droevendaalsesteeg 3, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Date: 24-26 October, 2007
Sponsors: FP6 (ECOCHANGE), Wageningen University, Alterra

• Wednesday, October 24
  13h-14h: Administrative information.
  14h-17h: Presentation of the progress of the different activities (by Activity leaders).
• Thursday, October 25
  8h-12h: Separate meeting per activity, to prepare the strategy for the annual report and the implementation of the second year (identification of the changes needed according to the workplan indicated in the Description of Work).
  12h-17h: Synthesis of the activity meetings and workplan until the next meeting in spring.
  17h-18h30: Training on Ecological Modelling
• Friday 26th
  Internal training with focus on the activities that are ongoing at the moment.

ECOCHANGE Project
A range of advanced modelling approaches has been used so far to assess the impact of global change on biodiversity and ecosystems. These approaches yield projections of the distribution of species, communities and biomes and the functioning of ecosystems. Future goods and services are then assessed from these projections. However, four main limitations remain associated with these approaches:

1. knowledge and data of past species’ distribution is still limited, yet necessary for testing them in the past before projecting them to the future;
2. we miss sound estimates of species’ long distance migration rates in order to assess whether species will be able to keep pace with rapid global change;
3. some key assumptions of models, such as niche stability over time and/or space, are not well tested;
4. we need more reliable estimate of uncertainties in model predictions.

Our project specifically proposes to go one step further by:

1. integrating different modelling approaches currently in use (niche-based, dynamic, dispersal, etc.), and by developing robust methodologies to estimate uncertainties associated with these projections;
2. generating required new data (paleo & migration) by using innovative DNA-based approaches, and global change scenarios;
3. testing niche conservatism and temporal evolution of biological communities;
4. using the new data in improved and integrated models to make projections more robust and realistic;
5. testing these approaches specifically in ecosystems of Fennoscandia and the Alps and by expanding the current projections to all of Europe.