Modelling land-use changes in southeastern Spain using a Markovian approach

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1 Mar 2006 13:30 - 1 Mar 2006 13:50
Unit: Wageningen UR

 By: Maria Piquer 

Abstract: 
Land-use changes are altering natural ecosystems at really high rates in the southeast of Spain. Biodiversity is lost, natural resources depleted and ecosystem services reduced. Here, we present the application of a Markovian cellular automata (CA Markov) model to locate spatially land use changes in that area (Almeria province). A land use projection was done at a provincial and ecosystem level from 1991-1999 to 2007. A validation of the model was carried out in 2005 by field sampling support. The reliability of land use projections was interpolated for the whole province by an indicator kriging. The CA Markov application presented a spatial scale dependency. For areas with land use distribution differing from its surroundings, the use of an ecosystem level approach of CA Markov is recommended. However, the provincial approach is needed for governance and planning. The main land-use drivers detected were urban developments for tourism purposes, greenhouses and other agriculture forms. The two first drivers forced the highest vegetation loss in Semi-arid Hollows regional ecosystem. The land use dynamics in the province enhance the need for conservation outside protected areas. Although more up-to-date data is needed for further time step land use projections, CA Markov arose as an easy applicable tool for short term projections. It provides visual interpretation of land use changes for detecting vulnerable areas threatened by human harmful uses. Conservation measures and more sophisticated analysis need to be focused in these ´attention areas´.
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